Friday 08 / November / 2024
London: While America's long-term allies Israel and Egypt have celebrated Donald Trump's upcoming return to the White House as US president, Qatar, Iran and other members of the Iran-led "Axis of Resistance" that oppose the US and Israel have diplomatically communicated their "political indifference."
Political observers, meanwhile, have no doubt Trump is keen to continue carry on with his unique way of handling Mideast policies.
"Trump likes to fashion himself as a dealmaker," Neil Quilliam, a Middle East and North Africa specialist at the London-based think tank Chatham House, told DW. "He will want to pick up from where he left off."
In Quilliam's view, Trump has three major political plans for the Middle East. First, he will focus on ending Israel's conflicts with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the expert said.
However, an end to the war in Gaza, the establishment of a future administration of the Gaza Strip and the potential creation of a Palestinian state is most likely intertwined with Trump's second vision for the Middle East.
"Trump will want to breathe new life into the Abraham Accords and increase the number of states that have normalised ties with Israel," said Quilliam, adding that "Saudi Arabia is his main target but Riyadh will resist unless Trump commits to a long-term project of creating a Palestinian state."
The Abraham Accords were a series of US-brokered deals between Arab countries and Israel that were initiated during Trump's first term. In 2020 and 2021, Israel normalised diplomatic ties with Morocco, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Sudan.
Saudi Arabia, too, was on the way to normalise relations with Israel in 2023. However, these talks stalled when the terror group Hamas carried out the deadly attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023 which set off the war in Gaza and, a year later, also triggered the conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Burcu Ozcelik, an expert on geopolitical risk analysis and security in the Middle East at the London-based Royal United Services Institute, said while Trump will seek to project American power and demonstrate his distinctive "edge" as a dealmaker, "he is very likely to find this to be more challenging now in the post-October 7 Middle East."
'Many Gulf Arabs' like Trump's persona
The war in Gaza and the thousands of Palestinian and Lebanese civilian deaths in the ongoing Israeli military campaigns, which most Gulf citizens see as being supported by the outgoing Biden administration, have cooled enthusiasm for the US in the United Arab Emirates, Kristin Smith Diwan, a senior resident scholar at The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, noted in a commentary earlier this week.
While many in the UAE supported the 2016 victory of Trump's Republican Party, she wrote, in 2024 "the popular reaction in the Gulf is akin to a shrug of the shoulders."
In her view, however, it's possible Trump's personality could turn the tide when he returns to the White House in January.
"Trump's popularity with many Gulf Arabs has derived not only from his foreign policy but also his persona: his projection of strength and willingness to 'tell it like it is'," she wrote.
Ashraf El-Ashari, an Egyptian political Mideast analyst, told DW that he expects "to witness more prosperity between Trump and Arab countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Jordan due to the political chemistry between Trump and the Arab rulers."
How will Trump handle Iran?
However, at the moment, this "political chemistry" does not extend to the US' regional foe, Iran, as well as the Iran-backed 'Axis of Resistance' factions that include Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Yemen's Houthis and Shiite groups in Iraq.
"Trump has taken a hard line against Iran-backed armed groups and will likely threaten a heavy toll if American personnel or interests in the region are targeted," said Ozcelik.
But she doesn't believe Trump would be inclined to drag the US into a direct confrontation with Iran, even as the military standoff between Israel and Iran heats up.
In addition, according to Chatham House expert Quilliam, clinching a deal with Iran is Trump's third major political aim.
"In order to do so, Trump will press for maximum pressure knowing that Iran is weakened at present and the specter of a major Israeli strike against its leadership and nuclear program will make it more pliable and willing to strike a grand bargain," he said.
Quilliam's view was echoed by Ozcelik. "Republicans are more amenable to a hawkish posture, including support for Israeli military attacks against sensitive Iranian targets, such as nuclear facilities or energy infrastructure," she said.
However, she also believes Trump "may consider talks with Tehran to promote de-escalation if he can cast himself as having achieved the unthinkable which no American president has done — achieving Middle East peace."
